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Informal observation[ edit ] Before psychological research on confirmation bias, the phenomenon had been observed throughout history. Beginning with the Greek historian Thucydides c. There are various reasons that make this unavoidable.
One of them is partisanship for opinions and schools. Prejudice and partisanship obscure the critical faculty and preclude critical investigation. The result is that falsehoods are accepted and transmitted. The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects or despises, or else by some distinction sets aside or rejects[.
At the outset, they were told that 2,4,6 fits the rule. Participants could generate their own triples and the experimenter told them whether or not each triple conformed to the rule.
For example, if they thought the rule was, "Each number is two greater than its predecessor," they would offer a triple that fit this rule, such as 11,13,15 rather than a triple that violates it, such as 11,12, He interpreted his results as showing a preference for confirmation over falsification, hence the term "confirmation bias".
It has been found repeatedly that people perform badly on various forms of this test, in most cases ignoring information that could potentially refute the rule. Instead, Klayman and Ha interpreted the results in terms of a tendency to make tests that are consistent with the working hypothesis.
Thus a scientific test of a hypothesis is one that is expected to produce the most information. Since the information content depends on initial probabilities, a positive test can either be highly informative or uninformative. Klayman and Ha argued that when people think about realistic problems, they are looking for a specific answer with a small initial probability.
In this case, positive tests are usually more informative than negative tests. This avoided implying that the aim was to find a low-probability rule. Participants had much more success with this version of the experiment.
If the true rule T overlaps the current hypothesis Hthen either a negative test or a positive test can potentially falsify H. When the working hypothesis H includes the true rule T then positive tests are the only way to falsify H.
In light of this and other critiques, the focus of research moved away from confirmation versus falsification to examine whether people test hypotheses in an informative way, or an uninformative but positive way.
The search for "true" confirmation bias led psychologists to look at a wider range of effects in how people process information. This heuristic avoids the difficult or impossible task of working out how diagnostic each possible question will be.
However, it is not universally reliable, so people can overlook challenges to their existing beliefs. In other words, they ask, "Can I believe this? For example, employers might ask one-sided questions in job interviews because they are focused on weeding out unsuitable candidates.
In this case, it would be rational to seek, evaluate or remember evidence of their honesty in a biased way. Highly self-monitoring students, who are more sensitive to their environment and to social normsasked more matching questions when interviewing a high-status staff member than when getting to know fellow students.
Exploratory thought neutrally considers multiple points of view and tries to anticipate all possible objections to a particular position, while confirmatory thought seeks to justify a specific point of view. Lerner and Tetlock say that when people expect to justify their position to others whose views they already know, they will tend to adopt a similar position to those people, and then use confirmatory thought to bolster their own credibility.
However, if the external parties are overly aggressive or critical, people will disengage from thought altogether, and simply assert their personal opinions without justification.
Beck in the early s and has become a popular approach. Nickerson argues that reasoning in judicial and political contexts is sometimes subconsciously biased, favoring conclusions that judges, juries or governments have already committed to.
The prediction that jurors will become more extreme in their views as they see more evidence has been borne out in experiments with mock trials.
Navy Admiral Husband E. Kimmel showed confirmation bias when playing down the first signs of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.
Tetlock found that, on the whole, their predictions were not much better than chance. Tetlock divided experts into "foxes" who maintained multiple hypotheses, and "hedgehogs" who were more dogmatic.Note: The following post accompanies Takuan Seiyo’s latest regardbouddhiste.com are being kept “sticky” until tonight.
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But being consistent is easier said than done. Here are 5 steps to taking consistent action, all the time. Dartmouth Writing Program support materials - including development of argument. Fundamentals of Critical Reading and Effective Writing.
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In the field of psychology, cognitive dissonance is the mental discomfort (psychological stress) experienced by a person who simultaneously holds two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, or regardbouddhiste.com discomfort is triggered by a situation in which a belief of a person clashes with new evidence perceived by that person.